Hollande's dreadful week proves that 'a week is a long time in politics'

"Trust me Frankie..."  "Ummm, okay Angie, I believe you..:(

It's been a terrible week for François Hollande, although he began it rather well. Monday saw him meeting with American Vice President Joe Biden, who praised him for what he called his "decisive" decision to send troops to Mali. 

Ah, Mali. Those had been indeed halycyon days. Hollande's army had swept with brio through Mali and pushed the rebels back into tiny strongholds in the north of the country, and he received such a hero's welcome during his visit to Mali to meet Malian representatives that he called it "the most important day of my political life." Better still, the whole shebang had been so popular with voters that it almost made France forget its economic woes.

But that was all forgotten the next day. It was Tuesday, and the analysts and some politicians suddenly brought him back down to earth with a bump. 'It's all very well making terrorists run away' they said 'but they are still alive and the hard bit - the asymmetrical warfare bit where they use road bombs and suicide bombers - is not going to be anything like as easy. Ask Bush, whose 'lightning' war to topple Saddam lasted a decade.' Hollande did not respond to the reports, hoping as he surely must have been that the upcoming EU budget summit would restore his aura.

But things got off to an immediate and unauspicious start on Wednesday morning, when Germany rejected Hollande's claim that the euro is overvalued and added that interest rates should not be used to boost competitiveness. Also, rumours began to circulate that David Cameron was going to drive a very hard bargain at the EU summit later in the week and that he was gunning for Hollande. Still, Angela Merkel did come over to Paris to watch the France-Germany football match, so maybe he could woo her over to seeing his point of view? The answer is 'no, he couldn't' because a Merkel spokesperson described their pre-match meeting to discuss the summit as "short and intense." The Elysée was forced to deny any major disagreement between them, and as if that wasn't enough the Germans beat France 1-2. Deary me. But even worse news would come Hollande's way on Thursday morning.

That was when dastastardly David Cameron spoilt his lunch in Brussels as the start of the summit with a violently uncompromising declaration to journalists in which he bluntly warned the EU - and Hollande in particular - that he would not sign the EU budget bill unless it was cut, and not increased as Hollande wanted it to be. "When we were last here in November, the numbers that were put forward were much too high." said Cameron. "They need to come down. And if they don't come down, there won't be a deal." Great Britain had declared budgetary war on France and an angrily defiant Hollande said that he would not give in. Metaphorical cruise missiles were lobbed from one side of Brussels to the other all day long, far into the evening, and onwards into a chilly night in all senses of the word.

As usual, the negotiations were acrimonious and overshadowed by Europe's 'Big Five' - Germany, Italy, Great Britain, France and Spain. And as is often the case they split up into two opposing camps, with France, Spain and Italy fighting for a budget increase and Britain and Germany, with Merkel finally making it clear that she was backing Cameron, opposing them with plans for a decrease.

Things got so bad for Hollande that he crawled sulkily back into his room, from which he didn't move or say a word, even refusing to answer 2am phone calls from EU leaders who wanted him to attend a meeting with Cameron and Merkel. It all reminded me of Hitler's last few desperate days in the bunker.

Finally though, and after a night of the kind of high drama and petulant theatrics which we have resignedly come to expect at EU summit meetings, Europe's leaders managed to thrash out a budget agreement for the rest of the decade. 

It was all over. Cameron had obtained almost all of the cuts he wanted, and Hollande was handed down a crumb or two from the table in order that he may try and save face when he got home. But it was not to be, and by the time he got back to Paris the press, politicians and public alike had already been savagely mauling him for a couple of hours. He was weak, they said, he had caved in, he had let his country down, he was a loser.

'Hollande's Trafalgar?' 'Cameron and Merkel impose austerity on Hollande'. '"Tightfisted Europe" wins out over Hollande'. Those are just three of the top-of-the-homepage headlines which were to be read in the French press yesterday evening. Cruel reading they must have made for Hollande, but crueller still is that they were accurate.

François Hollande must be musing ruefully today about what could arguably be called 'the worst week of his political life'. With his ephemeral success in Mali behind him, and a terrible drubbing in Europe to cap his week off, he knows that he now has no major crusade left to fight in order to keep the public's mind off the awful state of the economy, an economy which he shall now be forced to confront.

"A week is a long time in politics" said British Sixties PM Harold Wilson. Indeed it is, as François Hollande has just found out to his cost.

Britain's 'in-out' EU bluster and France's point-scoring riposte

Really?

Ah, you can always count on the French and Brits to cut their noses off to spite their faces when it comes to national differences, and that is exactly what is happening at the moment in the imbroglio which has followed David Cameron's recent announcement of an 'in or out' referendum for EU membership by 2017.

If David Cameron's proposed referendum were to be held today the verdict would be an unequivocal 'DEHORS!' As for the French, a BVA poll for Le Parisien-Aujourd'hui en France suggests that 52% of French voters would like to see Britain out of Europe, although another poll gives a slight advantage to those who would like les Rosbifs to remain.

French politicians have added to the negative view of Cameron's demands for changes in EU rules which he says are too constraining, with François 'Normal Flamby' Hollande insisting that the EU must be accepted as it is and Foreign Affairs Minister Laurent Fabius saying that Europe was not a self-service canteen where people pick and chose what, and how much, they want to eat, and that if Britain wanted to leave he'd roll out the red carpet.

Now all this kerfuffle might suit Cameron, whose arm-twisting of Europe may succeed in holding off the rabid dogs of his anti-EU right wing backbenchers, and it is certainly right up Hollande's rue to see his government Bashing the Brits at a time when he desperately needs to improve his popularity ratings with French voters, but at the end of the day it's all bluster and posture.

After all, who but the most cynical of British Europhobes seriously believes that Britain would have anything to gain by leaving Europe? Access to the Single Market would be severely curtailed and Britain's efforts to create an EU economic powerhouse capable of offering at least limited resistance to the threat posed by up and coming economies around the world would come to naught. And if there is anyone out there who is naive enough to believe that Britain's 'Special Relationship' with the USA could help it overcome the major trade difficulties which would inevitably follow a 'Brexit' they need to be sectioned under the Mental Health Act as terminally deluded individuals who are hell-bent on self-harm. America's strategic prioritising eyes began swivelling eastwards of Europe and towards the Far East years ago, as it is there that future planetary battles for economic and military superiority are destined to be fought.

The French would not fare any better in the event of a British exit, again for mainly economic reasons. The City, for all of France's efforts to depict it as the Devil incarnate of Evil Capitalism, is absolutely essential to France's economic survival as a major world nation. The City is the world's leading financial centre, and it's role in facilitating French and European exports to the rest of the world is pivotal, as is its role in attracting foreign investment to Europe from every single sizeable country or alliance of countries around the world. All the major French industries are present there for this reason, and Britain's isolation from Europe would seriously jeopardise France's trading position with America, Asia and others and further isolate it from the world's investment tissue. There is no EU equivalent of The City, mainly because all past efforts to create one have been stymied by......France itself, for reasons of national rivalry, notably with Germany. Then there's defence, and any EU without Britain would be a paper tiger in terms of its capacity to react militarily to threats from outside Europe. That is currently being cruelly and ironically demonstrated in France's ongoing Mali campaign by the fact that without British, American and Spanish military transport and refueling planes, France's limited number of old and ageing aircraft would not have been able to take the 3,700 and counting French troops to the theatre of operations.

This pseudo-spat is typical of how Europe is run. All serious issues within the EU which demand the presence of realism and clear-headed thinking are obfuscated by narrow national interests, be they electoral or other. Britain has a list of perceived griefs that it would like the EU to address, and common sense demands that a compromise be thrashed out around the table. It's as simple as that.

So Mesdames et Messieurs our political leaders, it's high time you stopped playing to the gallery with your empty threats of a referendum and invitations to the British to leave and started doing what we, your taxpayers, expect of you, which is to find solutions to problems.

Is that really too much to ask?

The ongoing fable of the wooing of Germany

Are you sitting comfortably children? Good. Then we'll begin.
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Everybody's favourite girl

Imagine for a moment that countries are like people, and that just like people they may be friends or enemies, work colleagues or strangers, and some are even lovers or married couples. Then ask yourself this; if France, Germany and Great Britiain were people, what would their relationships be like?

People have various strong points and failings, and they are more or less attracted to each other by a combination of many factors such as their natural affinities, characters, views on the world, future prospects, money and influence.

Europe is a club which was formed by group of friends, all shopkeepers, who decided to kiss and make up after they got into a big fight with each other, a fight called World War Two. As wise friends do, they decided to stop the blame game over who started it and help each other in the future. Germany and France were the two friends who were most motivated by the idea, although there were a few hangers-on such as Belgium and Luxembourg. They didn't have any choice anyway, as they were not big enough to stand up to the big two's hectoring tactics.

Then, one day, in walked Britain. "Hey" he said, "I was in the fight too, so can I join?" But Germany and France, fearing that Britain would want to dominate and steal all the sweets, said no, so Britain stood outside, sulked, and kept asking to join for years. France in particular was against the idea because he had strong suspicions that Britain would try to woo Germany away from his best friend.

Germany and France finally decided to relent however, particularly as Britain was quite a large man with a lot of big friends, including the USA, who was the biggest guy on the block. So that's why Britain was allowed to join, although they weren't allowed into club meetings which decide things, which really meant that Germany and France decided things on their own and the rest usually followed suit, although there was a fair bit of arm-twisting and ear-tweaking doled out to recalcitrants.

Later on the big two fell in love and decided to announce their engagement, which they called their 'special relationship'. France was particularly proud of this because it was well known that Germany was the most sought-after girl in Europe. Germany was rather more discreet about it however because she didn't want to offend anyone. At the same time their circle of friends got bigger, their new friends joined the club - now called the 'EU' - and they decided to buy from each other's shops as much as possible. This plan worked well, and as is only normal, the fiancés bought more from each other than they did from anyone else.

Both the club and the couple had spats from time to time, as all people do, and the biggest spat began three years ago when Greece, Ireland and Spain got into trouble with the others for spending too much of the subscription money. They were told to pay it back or leave and are doing their best to do so and atone for their profligate behaviour.

It is now exactly 50 years since Germany and France announced their engagement and over the years it has almost seemed at times as if they were married. They were very close to each other and agreed on nearly everything. But things were not as they seemed, as is often the case with couples, and they began bickering seriously about six months ago, with Germany saying that France should go out and work more and spend less to reduce his large overdraft at the bank and that if he didn't mend his ways he'd end up like the Greeks "and we don't want that now do we!?" France was annoyed at this rebuke because he knew that Britain agreed with Germany and would try and exploit the situation.

And talking of Britain, what had he been up to all this time? Was he still sulking? Well, he was, but he had also hatched a dastardly plot to win back Germany's favours. Although not a full member of the club - he didn't even use the same Monopoly money as everyone else - he had placed his agents in all its committees and they ended up running its essential functions such as how to fight noisy neighbours like Serbia. He couldn't do it on his own however but he asked his own 'special friend', big boy USA, to help him and the club. Britain was becoming so influential that he had even been heard saying to a friend in the pub that 'I don't want to be a member of Europe, I want to run it.'

He then used strong-arm tactics to get things done his way and he recently threatened to leave the club altogether if he didn't.

And it was under this cloud that Germany and France put on as brave a face as they could yesterday and celebrated their 50th anniversary. It was a good party, but everyone knew that the old sparkle and fire of love had gone.

But very bad news was about to come for France, and come it did just after yesterday's party had ended when everybody found out that Germany had been, if not unfaithful to France, rather devious. Instead of helping France by buying even more from his shop he began to buy enormous quantities of sweets at Britain's shop instead. Worse, Britain had reciprocated and we now know that they have exchanged so much that Britain has replaced France as Germany's biggest trade partner!

Yes children, Germany has come clean and said that she and Britain bought a record 153 billion euros worth of goodies from each other in the first nine months of last year, that their exchanges are booming at double-digit rates and that their trade relationship is the fastest growing in the world. France was shocked to learn that he was no longer Germany's preferred shop. Not only that, Germany seems to have been spending less within the club in general. She used to buy 46% of her needs from the club in 1999, but that percentage has gone down to just 37% today because she has begun flirting with not only Britain, but young and ambitious Asia too.

France is now very angry indeed and, in an attempt to reduce Britain's increasing influence over Germany, said early today that if Britain wanted to leave Europe then he wasn't going to stop him and would even roll a red carpet out for him to leave on.

But that tactic backfired just a couple of hours later when Germany, a strong-willed woman, got annoyed when she heard about her partner's petulance and said that unlike France she wants to talk to Britain in order to smooth out all the problems, find a compromise and persuade him to stay because he is strong, and as such is a useful guy to have around.

Nobody knows how the story ends, because the end hasn't been written yet, but the last news was that France is fuming, Britain is as pleased as punch, and Germany is as pissed off as can be at her two childish and unruly suitors.
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So I hope you enjoyed that story children, and the moral is twofold - you can never really trust your friends, and Europe is a shambles because it bickers even more than you do in class or in the playground. But at least you have the excuse of being children, whereas adults have none whatsoever.....

French PM Ayrault actually gets annoyed about something!

It's enough to put you off baguettes for life

I nearly fell off my chair when I read his words. Could these really be the words of long-serving Socialist dozy party-line plodder and faithful servant-cum first thus expendable Prime Ministerial scapegoat Jean-Marc Ayrault?

He is talking about an article in The Economist about the French economy when he suddenly and uncharacteristically blasts an all-guns broadside plus missiles for good measure full of vitriolic anger which, could words alone kill an international news magazine, would have vaporised The Economist in an instant and orphaned all its subscribers and readers.

Asked by a German TV station to comment the article he replies "you're talking about a mere newspaper and the excessive exaggeration it uses to sell its paper and I'm telling you that France couldn't care less."

Okay okay, don't hit me I'm wearing glasses! Fair enough, we know where you stand Jean-Marc.

The article he was referring to contains scathing scriticism of the way the French economy is being handled under François Hollande. The headline and standfirst read;

The time-bomb at the heart of Europe
Why France could become the biggest danger to Europe's single currency

It goes on to say in so many words that Hollande and his policies are even worse than catching ebola, that he eats grannies for breakfast, that he has pictures of both Stalin and Hitler on his Elysée office wall and that he would like to see the whole of Europe thrown into economic anarchy and civil insurrection. Well, it nearly does.

Now I'm no expert on economic matters but I have been following Hollande and his government's progress since they came into power.

And that's why I'm telling you, Jean-Marc, that it looks to me like the pressure is getting to you. You and your prez have been urged since you were elected by France, Europe, the World and its dog to do something about the appallingly imbalanced state of your economy instead of merely standing around like gnomes in a garden.

And you may have mistakenly believed that the measures that Hollande announced a few days ago to help businesses to live were enough to take the heat off, at least for a month or two.

But they aren't, and that's why you were rattled by the article. That, and the fact that you, as a former (and deservedly much-appreciated and successful it must be said) mayor of a major French city know full well how to run a budget.

Which means you also know that Hollande and your government are not going to finish U-turning on your election promises anytime soon. For the sake of France I sincerely hope that you and Hollande will succeed in getting France out of the hole, however many U-turns it takes.

Bonne chance...

It's time for Hollande to bite the bullet

Frankie takes a(nother) break from talking

The crushing heatwave that France is experiencing at the moment isn't the only thing which is making people grumpy. It is estimated that around 45% of the population couldn't afford a decent holiday this year and they were surely miffed to see their president get off his holiday train in Paris smiling away without a care in the world and sporting an almost indecently deep suntan after two weeks spent doing...nothing, or almost.

A president is just as entitled to a holiday as anyone else of course, but after Hollande's first '100 days' in power the French, including members of his own Parti Socialiste, are becoming increasingly uneasy at what is perceived to be a lack of presidential and governmental action on the pressing issues of the day.

These misgivings were forcefully put into words a few days ago by failed Front de Gauche parliamentary candidate Jean-Luc Mélenchon when he said that "the left is back in power after 10 years and all it can think of to do urgently is amend an existing budget and introduce a law on sexual harassment" and his verdict on the first 100 days of Hollande's reign was a stinging "100 days for almost nothing."

Despite the fact that Mélenchon had omitted to mention a few other, although equally minor, measures that the government has already introduced it's hard to argue with him and indeed few have, with government ministers being content to rally round their president with reminders that the presidency still has almost five years to run. That is true of course but it does not fully address Mélenchon's remarks.

The fact that the country is becoming increasingly worried about Hollande's performance can be imputed to his relative lack of action on his central campaign themes up to now.

Perhaps the most spectacular of those promises was to introduce a 75% tax on all earnings over one million Euros. This measure is still far from being adopted or even decided upon in preparatory discussions. Budget minister Jérome Cahuzac has already expressed his wish to see sporting personalities and showbiz stars exempted from the proposed law, and the government is now coming to terms with the fact that it will need to adjust its plans in order to avoid constitutional objections to them based on existing laws which are designed to prevent the spoliation of specific groups of people. It is probably safe to say that if ever this measure is introduced (and that is by no means certain) it will be heavily watered down.

Concerning Hollande's vow to overturn the EU fiscal pact, his efforts floundered on the rocks of Angela Merkel's resistance to them and all he got out of his corollary demand for a growth package was an insignificant measurette which implicates just a tiny percentage of European economic activity. Hollande now seems resigned to following Merkel's lead to the point where, in total contradiction to what he said before being elected, he recently announced that Greece must stick to its obligations regarding the draconian European bailout which will savage the Greek economy for years to come.

The 60,000 teaching jobs he promised? They are nowhere in sight, and, worse, the prospects for employment in general now look very grim indeed seeing as his pledge to penalise stock market-quoted companies which lay off hundreds or thousands of workers has been put back to 2013 due to what the government calls 'negotiations with the concerned parties.' A staffer at the Ministry of Work and Employment put it this way - "Negotiation is necessary in order to keep our engagements", along with the ominous caution that "the future shall tell us if these engagements can be kept." It is thus not surprising that several major companies, including Peugeot-Citroen, have announced plans to lay off thousands of workers since Hollande came to power. After all, who can stop them given the lack of concrete legislation to counter their intentions?

And what about his more global and seemingly contradictory promise to increase growth whilst simultaneously cutting France's budget deficit to 3% of GDP in one year? France's revenue authorities have already reminded him that reducing public spending means reducing salary costs in the public service, but how can he do that whilst at the same time creating the 60,000 teaching jobs plus 10,000 more in the justice system and the police? The same kind of problem awaits him in the national health service and social security.

Hollande met Prime minister Jean-Marc Ayrault yesterday in order to try and thrash out ways of slashing public spending by almost €35bn for the 2013 budget to get the deficit back down to 3%. This will not be easy because whereas the government has based its plans on a projected figure of 1.2% growth many economists and analysts predict that the French economy may not even reach 0.7%. If that happens he will be faced with the 'devil and the deep blue sea' choice of either failing to deliver on France's promise to the EU to reach 3% on time or cutting costs even more deeply.

It is of course true that rushed legislation is often botched legislation, and the socialists were quite right to criticise Nicolas Sarkozy's whirlwind flurries of legislative activity which led to several of the major laws he passed being thrown out of the Senate and back into his arms in order that he modify offending passages. Also, there are some minor new bits of legislation in view, such as a "modest" and "temporary" lowering of state tax on petrol in order to help household budgets, but measures like this are far from being enough to affect the economy in any meaningful way.

Hollande is going to have to bite the bullet sooner or later and tackle some of the major structural flaws in the French economy and labour market now that the traditional 'honeymoon period' for new presidents is over for him. France badly needs to develop a global strategy on both of these issues as well as others, and it's time Hollande got on with it.

But as things stand, François Hollande looks more like a frightened rabbit caught in the glaring headlights of the serious issues facing him than a president in active office, and that is the last thing that France or any other country needs during a period of crisis.

Is Europe heading for ‘an early grave’?

A new grave, awaiting a client. Europe maybe?

It most certainly may be if one is to believe Kevin Rudd, Australia’s foreign minister. He issued his gloomy warning in a speech to world leaders attending the Munich Security Conference and his words are sure to cause anger and embarrassment in Europe.

Rudd said that Europe was absent from the debate over the growing economic and political influence of China and Asia, adding that “…this should no longer be the case.”

"The danger that I see” he said “is Europe progressively becoming so introspective and so preoccupied with its internal problems on the economy and on the eurozone in particular that Europe runs the risk of talking itself into an early economic and therefore globally political grave".

"We don't want that. We actually think Europe has fundamental strengths to deliver to the rest of the world but we are not seeing a whole lot of that right now.”

Depressing stuff indeed. But is he right? 

It must be said that it’s not as if his speech – headline-grabbing as it was - breaks any new ground. Analysts and government think-tanks have for years been churning out study results which demonstrate the inevitable decline of Europe in relative terms because of the shift in the balance of the world’s economic power centres.

But another, and more ominously pertinent, clue as to the veracity of Rudd’s words in today’s context is to be found in the reaction to them by EU internal market commissioner Michel Barnier, who curtly claimed that Europe would “emerge stronger and better organised from this crisis.”

Barnier’s answer is almost as depressing as Rudd’s predictions. There are no reasons whatsoever to believe that Europe will come out of this crisis strengthened. On the contrary, the Greece bondholder discussions are dragging themselves out and last Monday’s EU summit failed to make any progress on the EU bailout fund. In other words, the measures decided during the December summit to address the eurozone crisis – measures which were derided by many analysts as being too little too late and which led to Cameron washing Britain’s hands of the whole affair – are still waiting to be implemented.

Europe seems to be in a state of denial over the risks that it is running, and nowhere is that to be seen more clearly than in the French press, which deliberately downplayed all the rumours of an agency downgrade of France and is still publishing upbeat articles on the Franco-German tandem and its rosy future in the future of Europe.

It’s as if they just don’t want to acknowledge the looming possibility of the demise of the euro, and even that of Europe itself. But the facts are there. Further downgrades are being predicted, various countries are known to be reassessing their currency printing capacity in case the euro collapses and national currencies are introduced, and meanwhile the American economy is showing strong signs of recovery, against all expectations. 

So, is Rudd right? Or, put another way, ‘can Europe prove him wrong?’ Michel Barnier most certainly did not prove him wrong today, and unless Europe stops fiddling around and decides to grab the debt bull by the horns, and quickly, his predictions will become a reality as Europe slides irrevocably into an early grave.